Local Quickcast

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Scattered showers after 4pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 75. South wind 8 to 11 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
Showers
Tonight

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 7pm.  Patchy fog.  Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 62. South southeast wind around 6 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers
Likely and
Patchy Fog
Hi 75 °FLo 62 °F
Extended Forecast

 
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There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for Pinellas County, Florida.

 Hurricane Outlook Discussion - Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico
Expires:No;;825639
AXNT20 KNHC 221203
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A gale warning will become in effect in 36 hours 
for the SW Gulf in the wake of the next cold front that will move 
off the Texas coast around 12 UTC this morning. The cold front 
will reach from the Mississippi Delta region to Veracruz by early 
this evening before becoming stationary from the Straits of 
Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Tue night. The front 
is forecast to linger across that general area through Thu. 
Minimal gale force NW to N winds of 25 to 35 kt are forecast for 
the extreme SW Gulf S of 21N W of 94.5W beginning at 18 UTC on 
Tue, then diminish to strong winds late Tue night. The gale force 
winds are expected to return briefly to the same area on Wed 
night. The front will weaken Wed night through Thu. Please see the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The African monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near 
07N10W and continues to 01N20W. The ITCZ begins near 01N20W and 
extends to 03N31W to coast of S America at 01N49W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm N of the 
ITCZ between 33W-37W, and within 60 nm N of the axis between
26W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb
high located near 33N85W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds
prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are moving
across the northwest Gulf ahead of a cold front that is currently
moving through eastern Texas, and quickly approaching the coast.
Dense fog has formed ahead of the front over some portions of the 
NW Gulf, north of about 25N and west of 93W. Caution must be 
exercised transiting in this area. The front is expected to enter 
the northwest Gulf by Monday morning, then it will extend from 
Dixie, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning, 
and from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed 
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail behind the 
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over portions of the 
NW Caribbean assisted by diffluence aloft. Fresh to strong winds 
were noted in the latest scatterometer data over much of the 
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds being along the coast 
of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the 
elsewhere across the basin. Persistent ridging north of the area 
will allow for strong to near-gale force trades to pulse along the
northwest coast of Colombia through the week. The tail end of a 
cold front is forecast to reach the northwest Caribbean waters by 
late Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will 
prevail across the northwest Caribbean waters through the week as 
the front continues moving the west Atlantic waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging dominates the west Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1025 mb
high pressure centers located near 32N75W and 29N70W. Diffluence 
aloft on the east side of a mid to upper trough over the Florida 
Peninsula is supporting scattered showers across the Bahamas from 
21N-27N between 72W-78W. At the surface, a trough accompanies this
convection extending from 27N74W to 23N73W. To the east, a 
stationary front extends across the east-central Atlantic from 
31N39W to 24N45W to 22N58W. Scattered showers are noted within 200
nm to the east of the front mainly north 21N. A 1035 mb high 
pressure centered over southwest Portugal adjacent waters extends
a ridge over the eastern Atlantic region north of 20N. The high 
pressure over the west Atlantic will shift east to just southwest 
of Bermuda through the next 24 hours, then shift north of Bermuda 
Monday night allowing a cold front to move off the northeast 
Florida coast by Tuesday afternoon. The cold front will reach from
near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Wednesday night and from 
27N65W to Central Cuba on Thursday night. Convection and gusty
winds will accompany this front.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/Aguirre


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